Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 8.500442 9.777923 11.155719 12.748914 14.537026 16.478501 18.742488
2025-12-14 6.565709 8.276072 10.266809 12.741762 15.721796 19.179199 23.477759
2025-12-21 5.273463 7.068966 9.267478 12.133342 15.743476 20.111098 25.762317
2025-12-28 4.693682 6.635914 9.119900 12.490575 16.900207 22.423199 29.806534
2026-01-04 4.204069 6.230134 8.922234 12.704886 17.816739 24.410678 33.471629
2026-01-11 3.699535 5.734991 8.539573 12.611675 18.283710 25.802110 36.397329
2026-01-18 3.271582 5.291836 8.171915 12.483059 18.657714 27.048390 39.146549
2026-01-25 2.947547 4.961149 7.924113 12.485721 19.187658 28.502672 42.213598
2026-02-01 2.695049 4.709111 7.761872 12.585884 19.841565 30.136516 45.576848
2026-02-08 2.430896 4.408836 7.496122 12.501326 20.203828 31.353640 48.381408
2026-02-15 2.193305 4.125577 7.228896 12.386095 20.498538 32.467744 51.062993
2026-02-22 2.019510 3.930585 7.082560 12.441853 21.043875 33.958371 54.337461
2026-03-01 1.911275 3.842427 7.108498 12.782274 22.061851 36.220414 58.886564
2026-03-08 1.722147 3.590141 6.839012 12.618557 22.268525 37.254625 61.624543
2026-03-15 1.492343 3.236396 6.362917 12.068506 21.807378 37.217588 62.695229
2026-03-22 1.423150 3.180972 6.405563 12.404620 22.815360 39.520869 67.481989
2026-03-29 1.342933 3.095073 6.384830 12.624672 23.633795 41.547017 71.897266
2026-04-05 1.227669 2.925826 6.195888 12.529489 23.904503 42.690836 74.936867
2026-04-12 1.119764 2.759756 5.998413 12.402482 24.107212 43.722363 77.821076
2026-04-19 1.037133 2.638475 5.876620 12.404817 24.532152 45.131880 81.363590
2026-04-26 0.972290 2.549145 5.809968 12.504526 25.131538 46.851426 85.470268
2026-05-03 0.894073 2.420751 5.653868 12.420405 25.389075 47.992476 88.640383
2026-05-10 0.819951 2.293257 5.488714 12.305839 25.580482 49.020137 91.644763